The UK economy is vulnerable if there is a global economic downturn

by | Apr 25, 2025 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

From the FT today: ๐™๐™๐™š ๐™๐™† ๐™š๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ข๐™ฎ ๐™ž๐™จ ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™– ๐™ซ๐™ช๐™ก๐™ฃ๐™š๐™ง๐™–๐™—๐™ก๐™š ๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™จ๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ž๐™› ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š๐™ง๐™š ๐™ž๐™จ ๐™– ๐™œ๐™ก๐™ค๐™—๐™–๐™ก ๐™š๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ข๐™ž๐™˜ ๐™™๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ช๐™ง๐™ฃ. Post-financial crisis and pandemic struggles have only been worsened by unpredictable U.S. policies.

๐—จ๐—ž ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜„๐˜๐—ต ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—น๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฑ. Between 2007 and 2024, UK productivity rose just 5.9%, compared to 38% from 1990 to 2007. Real wages only increased by 2.2%.

๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—š๐Ÿณ ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ป’๐˜ ๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—บ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ. Since 2019, UK productivity fell by 0.8%, with the U.S. leading at 9.1%. U.S. productivity gains aren’t limited to tech; broader investment in R&D and ICT has driven growth. Meanwhile, UK sectors, including healthcare, drag on productivity.

๐—จ.๐—ฆ. ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—–๐—ข๐—ฉ๐—œ๐——-๐Ÿญ๐Ÿต ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜€ ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ฒโ€”25% of GDPโ€”and allowed labor market churn, better jobs, and higher wages. Bidenomics, though imperfect, carefully used interventionist policies. The U.S.’s size and resources make such strategies more feasible than in the UK.

๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—จ๐—ž ๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—บ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐˜€. To prevent stagnation, active policies are essential.

๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜† ๐—บ๐—ถ๐˜… ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ. And we need to get beyond the politics of exhortation, and move into delivery.

https://lnkd.in/e5pR8eNX

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